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The Only Poll That Matters

November 5, 2012

Gallup’s final poll has Romney up 1 point %49 to %48 but that’s not the most important poll.

This is…

While every single poll on the planet predicts Democrats will enjoy a turnout advantage of three to eleven points, the latest Rasmussen survey of party affiliation taken throughout October shows that Republicans enjoy a  huge 5.8% Party ID advantage going into the 2012 election.

According to Twitter’s invaluable NumbersMuncher, Rasmussen correctly predicted 2008 would be a D+7 election and incorrectly predicted 2010 would be D+3. (2010 was D+0, or even, so Rasmussen gave an edge to Democrats they didn’t have.)

If the 2012 race is D+2, Romney’s probably going to win. If the race is R+6, Romney’s going to enjoy a landslide.

Read more here.

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